Dolphins vs Packers — Week 16, 2022
The Dolphins took over trailing 26-20 with 1:56 left, 1st & 10 at their own 28, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 20, Packers 26. Packers won 26-20 — the drive turnover.
Dolphins ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 28, 1:56 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 16.0% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 10.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 23-J.Wilson to MIA 31 for 3 yards (29-R.Douglas).
- (1:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right intended for 88-M.Gesicki INTERCEPTED by 29-R.Douglas at MIA 44. 29-R.Douglas to MIA 39 for 5 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+1.14 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.14 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +1.14 pts |
| Curl route | +1.12 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.78 pts |
| QB keep | +0.73 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.69 pts |
| Play action | +0.51 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.38 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.38 pts |
| Quick out | +0.32 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.26 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.05 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.26 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.29 pts |
| Outside run | -0.66 pts |
| Inside run | -0.95 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.03 pts |
| Spike it | -1.14 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.