Broncos vs Jets — Week 7, 2022
The Broncos took over trailing 16-9 with 4:35 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 9, Jets 16. Jets won 16-9 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Broncos ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 25, 4:35 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 17.7% for Broncos. Our model starts at 13.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:35) (Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien pass short right to 80-G.Dulcich pushed ob at DEN 34 for 9 yards (1-A.Gardner). DEN-73-C.Fleming was injured during the play.
- (4:31) (Shotgun) 28-L.Murray up the middle to DEN 37 for 3 yards (98-S.Rankins).
- (4:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien pass short right to 1-K.Hamler to DEN 41 for 4 yards (1-A.Gardner).
- (3:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien pass incomplete short right to 28-L.Murray.
- (3:41) (Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien pass deep right to 80-G.Dulcich to NYJ 43 for 16 yards (26-B.Echols).
- (3:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien pass short left to 14-C.Sutton to NYJ 32 for 11 yards (57-C.Mosley).
- (2:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Sutton.
- (2:42) (Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien pass short right to 10-J.Jeudy ran ob at NYJ 28 for 4 yards (3-J.Whitehead) [95-Q.Williams].
- (2:36) (Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien pass short right to 10-J.Jeudy to NYJ 25 for 3 yards (30-M.Carter).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien pass incomplete deep right to 14-C.Sutton (1-A.Gardner).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.80 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.41 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.80 pts |
| QB keep | +0.63 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.56 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.55 pts |
| Deep post | +0.39 pts |
| Play action | +0.27 pts |
| Quick out | +0.19 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.13 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.05 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.07 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.09 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.33 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| Outside run | -0.56 pts |
| Inside run | -0.90 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.02 pts |
| Spike it | -1.41 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.