Jaguars vs Commanders — Week 1, 2022
The Jaguars took over trailing 28-22 with 1:46 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 22, Commanders 28. Commanders won 28-22 — the drive turnover.
Jaguars ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 1:46 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 15.1% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 10.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:46) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 11-M.Jones to JAX 33 for 8 yards (3-W.Jackson). WAS-93-J.Allen was injured during the play.
- (1:30) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left.
- (1:25) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 13-C.Kirk ran ob at JAX 44 for 4 yards (25-B.St-Juste) [95-C.Toohill].
- (1:19) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 22-D.Forrest [90-M.Sweat] at WAS 25. 22-D.Forrest pushed ob at WAS 26 for 1 yard (17-E.Engram).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+1.17 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.13 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +1.17 pts |
| Curl route | +1.12 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.78 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.69 pts |
| QB keep | +0.58 pts |
| Play action | +0.51 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.39 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.39 pts |
| Quick out | +0.31 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.26 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.05 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.26 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.36 pts |
| Outside run | -0.76 pts |
| Inside run | -1.02 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.10 pts |
| Spike it | -1.13 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.