Texans vs Broncos — Week 2, 2022

What really happened

Final: Texans 9, Broncos 16. Broncos won 16-9 — the drive turned it over on downs.

Texans ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 25, 3:36 on the clock.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 15.3% for Texans. Our model starts at 11.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (3:36) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 12-N.Collins to HOU 45 for 20 yards (30-C.Sterns).
2. (3:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep middle to 13-B.Cooks to DEN 32 for 23 yards (30-C.Sterns).
3. (2:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Mills sacked at DEN 41 for -9 yards (5-R.Gregory). FUMBLES (5-R.Gregory) [5-R.Gregory], touched at DEN 41, recovered by HOU-60-A.Cann at DEN 41.
4. (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right to 85-P.Brown to DEN 37 for 4 yards (6-P.Locke; 21-K.Williams).
5. (1:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short left to 13-B.Cooks.
6. (1:27) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short right to 12-N.Collins.

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.89 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.25 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.