Raiders vs Patriots — Week 15, 2022
The Raiders took over trailing 24-17 with 3:39 left, 1st & 10 at their own 31, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Patriots.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 30, Patriots 24. Raiders won 30-24 — the drive turned it over.
Raiders ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 31, 3:39 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 16.6% for Raiders. Our model starts at 12.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short right.
- (3:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep middle to 10-M.Hollins.
- (3:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep middle to 17-D.Adams.
- (3:20) 6-A.Cole punts 41 yards to NE 28, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.95 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.32 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.95 pts |
| Deep post | +0.70 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.66 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.62 pts |
| QB keep | +0.53 pts |
| Play action | +0.38 pts |
| Quick out | +0.25 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.19 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.12 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.10 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.34 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.40 pts |
| Outside run | -0.70 pts |
| Inside run | -1.00 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.11 pts |
| Spike it | -1.32 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.