Ravens vs Falcons — Week 16, 2022
The Ravens took over leading 17-9 with 1:57 left, 1st & 10 at their own 28, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 17, Falcons 9. Ravens won 17-9 — the drive time expired.
Ravens ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 28, 1:57 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 98.5% for Ravens. Our model starts at 97.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:57) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards up the middle to BAL 31 for 3 yards (93-T.Horne).
- (1:53) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards up the middle to BAL 39 for 8 yards (93-T.Horne).
- (1:50) 2-T.Huntley kneels to BAL 38 for -1 yards.
- (1:09) 2-T.Huntley kneels to BAL 37 for -1 yards.
- (:29) 2-T.Huntley kneels to BAL 36 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.71 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.44 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.71 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -0.78 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.87 pts |
| Quick out | -1.22 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.24 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.25 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.64 pts |
| QB keep | -1.64 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.77 pts |
| Play action | -3.02 pts |
| Curl route | -3.49 pts |
| End-around | -5.49 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.54 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.49 pts |
| Deep post | -9.32 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.47 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.44 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.