Commanders vs Falcons — Week 12, 2022
The Commanders took over leading 19-13 with 0:58 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 19, Falcons 13. Commanders won 19-13 — the drive time expired.
Commanders ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 20, 0:58 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 98.2% for Commanders. Our model starts at 94.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (:58) 8-B.Robinson left guard to WAS 24 for 4 yards (93-T.Horne; 3-M.Walker).
- (:55) 8-B.Robinson left end to WAS 25 for 1 yard (9-L.Carter).
- (:51) 10-C.Samuel left end to WAS 28 for 3 yards (54-R.Evans; 92-A.Ogundeji).
- (:32) 4-T.Heinicke kneels to WAS 32 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.08 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.88 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.08 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.34 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Outside run | -0.48 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.53 pts |
| Inside run | -0.69 pts |
| Quick out | -0.95 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.98 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.02 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.27 pts |
| QB keep | -1.30 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.65 pts |
| Play action | -2.55 pts |
| Curl route | -2.96 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.06 pts |
| End-around | -5.10 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.96 pts |
| Deep post | -8.61 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.95 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.88 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.