Browns vs Steelers — Week 3, 2022
The Browns took over leading 23-17 with 1:46 left, 1st & 10 at the Steelers 46, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Browns 29, Steelers 17. Browns won 29-17 — the drive turned it over.
Browns ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Near midfield, 1:46 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 98.2% for Browns. Our model starts at 96.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:46) 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 24-N.Chubb left guard to PIT 43 for 3 yards (94-T.Alualu).
- (1:40) 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 24-N.Chubb left guard to PIT 37 for 6 yards (94-T.Alualu, 51-M.Jack).
- (:54) 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 24-N.Chubb right guard to PIT 36 for 1 yard (29-L.Wallace). The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 68-M.Dunn and 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 24-N.Chubb right guard to PIT 37 for no gain (29-L.Wallace).
- (:15) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 33 yards to PIT 4, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.74 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.35 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.74 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -0.77 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.81 pts |
| Quick out | -1.18 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.19 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.21 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.57 pts |
| QB keep | -1.58 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.75 pts |
| Play action | -2.94 pts |
| Curl route | -3.40 pts |
| End-around | -5.43 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.46 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.40 pts |
| Deep post | -9.20 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.39 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.35 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.