Bills vs Jets — Week 14, 2022
The Bills took over leading 20-12 with 1:13 left, 1st & 10 at their own 29, 1 timeout in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Bills 20, Jets 12. Bills won 20-12 — the drive turned it over.
Bills ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 29, 1:13 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 99.2% for Bills. Our model starts at 97.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:13) 68-B.Hart reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 88-D.Knox (57-C.Mosley).
- (1:06) 26-D.Singletary up the middle to BUF 33 for 4 yards (98-S.Rankins).
- (:59) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen left tackle to BUF 34 for 1 yard (57-C.Mosley).
- (:53) 8-S.Martin punts 45 yards to NYJ 21, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.54 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.57 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.54 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.74 pts |
| Inside run | -0.83 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.89 pts |
| Quick out | -1.24 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.25 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.26 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.71 pts |
| QB keep | -1.71 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.81 pts |
| Curl route | -3.60 pts |
| Play action | -5.15 pts |
| End-around | -5.61 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -7.67 pts |
| Deep corner | -8.63 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.59 pts |
| Deep post | -11.53 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.57 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.