Eagles vs Packers — Week 12, 2022
The Eagles took over leading 40-33 with 1:07 left, 1st & 10 at the Packers 44, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 40, Packers 33. Eagles won 40-33 — the drive time expired.
Eagles ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. In Packers territory, 1:07 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 99.2% for Eagles. Our model starts at 98.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:07) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders left tackle to GB 42 for 2 yards (51-K.Barnes).
- (1:01) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders right tackle to GB 37 for 5 yards (94-D.Lowry).
- (:57) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders right tackle to GB 33 for 4 yards (31-A.Amos).
- (:24) 1-J.Hurts kneels to GB 34 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.48 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.61 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.48 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.77 pts |
| Inside run | -0.84 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.96 pts |
| Quick out | -1.30 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.31 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.31 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.74 pts |
| QB keep | -1.74 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.83 pts |
| Play action | -3.16 pts |
| Curl route | -3.64 pts |
| End-around | -5.65 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.67 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.64 pts |
| Deep post | -9.53 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.63 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.61 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.