Panthers vs Saints — Week 3, 2022
The Panthers took over leading 22-14 with 2:21 left, 1st & 10 at their own 46, 1 timeout in hand, against the Saints.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 22, Saints 14. Panthers won 22-14 — the drive turned it over.
Panthers ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. Near midfield, 2:21 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 98.0% for Panthers. Our model starts at 97.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:21) 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle to CAR 47 for 1 yard (20-P.Werner; 99-S.Tuttle).
- (2:00) 22-C.McCaffrey right tackle to NO 49 for 4 yards (93-D.Onyemata).
- (1:14) 22-C.McCaffrey right guard to NO 45 for 4 yards (92-M.Davenport).
- (:27) 10-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to NO 1, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-23-S.Thomas-Oliver.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.67 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.50 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.67 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.69 pts |
| Inside run | -0.79 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.91 pts |
| Quick out | -1.25 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.27 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.27 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.68 pts |
| QB keep | -1.68 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.78 pts |
| Play action | -3.07 pts |
| Curl route | -3.55 pts |
| End-around | -5.53 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.59 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.54 pts |
| Deep post | -9.39 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.52 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.50 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.