Titans vs Chargers — Week 15, 2022
The Titans took over trailing 14-7 with 2:57 left, 1st & 10 at their own 26, 1 timeout in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Titans 14, Chargers 17. Chargers won 17-14 — the drive scored.
Titans ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 26, 2:57 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 11.6% for Titans. Our model starts at 9.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:57) 22-D.Henry right end to TEN 33 for 7 yards (24-N.Adderley).
- (2:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle to TEN 36 for 3 yards (52-K.Mack).
- (2:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 22-D.Henry to TEN 40 for 4 yards (9-K.Murray).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 19-C.Conley to TEN 45 for 5 yards (26-A.Samuel).
- (1:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-H.Haskins right guard to LAC 47 for 8 yards (52-K.Mack, 9-K.Murray).
- (1:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 25-H.Haskins to LAC 49 for -2 yards (9-K.Murray).
- (1:14) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 85-C.Okonkwo pushed ob at LAC 21 for 28 yards (32-A.Gilman).
- (1:07) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 81-A.Hooper to LAC 4 for 17 yards (24-N.Adderley).
- (:59) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 22-D.Henry to LAC 2 for 2 yards (24-N.Adderley).
- (:54) 22-D.Henry up the middle to LAC 1 for 1 yard (90-T.Davison, 49-D.Tranquill).
- (:51) 17-R.Tannehill up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.86 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.05 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.86 pts |
| Deep post | +0.80 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.59 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.54 pts |
| QB keep | +0.45 pts |
| Play action | +0.36 pts |
| Quick out | +0.22 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.21 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.20 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.17 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.01 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.27 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.34 pts |
| Outside run | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -0.90 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.98 pts |
| Spike it | -1.05 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.