Falcons vs Panthers — Week 10, 2022
The Falcons took over trailing 22-15 with 2:33 left, 1st & 10 at their own 34, 1 timeout in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 15, Panthers 25. Panthers won 25-15 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Falcons ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 34, 2:33 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 12.2% for Falcons. Our model starts at 10.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:33) (Shotgun) 35-A.Williams left tackle to ATL 33 for -1 yards (95-D.Brown).
- (2:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota sacked at ATL 26 for -7 yards (98-M.Haynes).
- (1:58) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep middle to 17-O.Zaccheaus.
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota sacked at ATL 19 for -7 yards (98-M.Haynes).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.99 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.11 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.99 pts |
| Deep post | +0.96 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.69 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.62 pts |
| QB keep | +0.52 pts |
| Play action | +0.43 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.28 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.28 pts |
| Quick out | +0.27 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.21 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.27 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.35 pts |
| Outside run | -0.71 pts |
| Inside run | -0.96 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.04 pts |
| Spike it | -1.11 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.