Jets vs Browns — Week 2, 2022
The Jets took over trailing 24-17 with 4:07 left, 1st & 10 at their own 8, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Jets 31, Browns 30. Jets won 31-30 — the drive turned it over.
Jets ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. Backed up at their own 8, 4:07 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 11.8% for Jets. Our model starts at 11.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:07) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass short right to 32-Mi.Carter to NYJ 7 for -1 yards (5-A.Walker).
- (3:27) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass short right to 83-T.Conklin to NYJ 11 for 4 yards (28-J.Owusu-Koramoah) [99-T.Bryan]. FUMBLES (28-J.Owusu-Koramoah), touched at NYJ 11, recovered by NYJ-61-M.Mitchell at NYJ 10.
- (2:45) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep left to 84-C.Davis.
- (2:41) 7-B.Mann punts 47 yards to CLE 43, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-D.Felton to CLE 43 for no gain (34-J.Hardee). PENALTY on NYJ-36-M.Harris, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 43.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (-0.56 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.52 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | -0.56 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Curl route | -0.72 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.77 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.79 pts |
| Quick out | -0.83 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.85 pts |
| QB keep | -0.85 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.90 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.96 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.99 pts |
| Play action | -1.04 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.06 pts |
| Spike it | -1.25 pts |
| Inside run | -1.40 pts |
| Outside run | -1.43 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.52 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.