Broncos vs Titans — Week 10, 2022
The Broncos took over trailing 17-10 with 2:54 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 10, Titans 17. Titans won 17-10 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Broncos ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 25, 2:54 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 11.5% for Broncos. Our model starts at 9.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:54) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at DEN 23 for -2 yards (sack split by 99-R.Weaver and 95-D.Walker).
- (2:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 14-C.Sutton to DEN 30 for 7 yards (39-T.Mitchell, 31-K.Byard).
- (2:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Sutton [99-R.Weaver].
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles left end pushed ob at DEN 39 for 9 yards (47-A.Adams).
- (1:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 25-M.Gordon to TEN 44 for 17 yards (31-K.Byard; 21-R.McCreary).
- (1:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 14-C.Sutton to TEN 27 for 17 yards (53-D.Cole).
- (:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 14-C.Sutton pushed ob at TEN 21 for 6 yards (39-T.Mitchell).
- (:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short left to 16-T.Cleveland.
- (:38) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at TEN 30 for -9 yards (99-R.Weaver). FUMBLES (99-R.Weaver) [99-R.Weaver], touched at TEN 29, recovered by DEN-75-Q.Bailey at TEN 30.
- (:20) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle intended for 14-C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by 39-T.Mitchell (28-J.Kalu) [94-M.Edwards] at TEN 0. 39-T.Mitchell to TEN 1 for 1 yard.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.85 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.02 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.85 pts |
| Deep post | +0.80 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.58 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.53 pts |
| QB keep | +0.44 pts |
| Play action | +0.35 pts |
| Quick out | +0.21 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.21 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.21 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.17 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.01 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.26 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.33 pts |
| Outside run | -0.66 pts |
| Inside run | -0.89 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.96 pts |
| Spike it | -1.02 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.