Chargers vs Titans — Week 15, 2022
The Chargers took over leading 14-7 with 3:19 left, 1st & 10 at their own 15, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 17, Titans 14. Chargers won 17-14 — the drive turned it over.
Chargers ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 15, 3:19 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.6% for Chargers. Our model starts at 92.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:19) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to LAC 15 for no gain (98-J.Simmons; 95-D.Walker).
- (3:16) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right [48-B.Dupree].
- (3:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 30-A.Ekeler to LAC 20 for 5 yards (32-G.Mabin).
- (3:05) 16-J.Scott punts 54 yards to TEN 26, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.36 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.87 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.62 pts |
| Outside run | -0.64 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.64 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.87 pts |
| Inside run | -0.87 pts |
| Quick out | -1.28 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.31 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.32 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.52 pts |
| QB keep | -1.62 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.80 pts |
| Play action | -2.79 pts |
| Curl route | -3.20 pts |
| End-around | -5.20 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.21 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.09 pts |
| Deep post | -8.62 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.01 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.87 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.