Panthers vs Falcons — Week 10, 2022
The Panthers took over leading 22-15 with 2:56 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 25, Falcons 15. Panthers won 25-15 — the drive turned it over.
Panthers ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 2:56 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 93.5% for Panthers. Our model starts at 93.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:56) 75-C.Erving reported in as eligible. 33-D.Foreman up the middle to CAR 29 for 4 yards (95-T.Graham; 97-G.Jarrett).
- (2:50) 33-D.Foreman left tackle to CAR 28 for -1 yards (54-R.Evans).
- (2:46) (Shotgun) 11-P.Walker pass incomplete short left to 2-D.Moore (27-R.Grant).
- (2:43) 10-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to ATL 25, Center-44-J.Jansen. 35-A.Williams to ATL 34 for 9 yards (57-D.Wilson).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.19 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.90 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.19 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| Outside run | -0.46 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.48 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.61 pts |
| Inside run | -0.68 pts |
| Quick out | -1.01 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.04 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.07 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.34 pts |
| QB keep | -1.36 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.64 pts |
| Play action | -2.62 pts |
| Curl route | -3.04 pts |
| End-around | -5.07 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.12 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.02 pts |
| Deep post | -8.65 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.97 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.90 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.