Vikings vs Jets — Week 13, 2022
The Vikings took over leading 27-22 with 1:43 left, 1st & 10 at their own 2, 1 timeout in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 27, Jets 22. Vikings won 27-22 — the drive turned it over.
Vikings ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Backed up at their own 2, 1:43 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 94.0% for Vikings. Our model starts at 89.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:43) 74-O.Udoh reported in as eligible. 4-D.Cook up the middle to MIN 2 for no gain (72-M.Clemons, 9-K.Alexander).
- (1:39) 4-D.Cook right guard to MIN 5 for 3 yards (3-J.Whitehead, 95-Q.Williams).
- (1:35) 4-D.Cook left end to MIN 3 for -2 yards (9-K.Alexander).
- (1:30) 14-R.Wright punts 48 yards to NYJ 49, Center-42-A.DePaola. 10-B.Berrios to MIN 43 for 8 yards (44-J.Metellus).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.62 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.82 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.62 pts |
| Outside run | -0.61 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.62 pts |
| Inside run | -0.76 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.79 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.21 pts |
| Quick out | -1.50 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.52 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.52 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.69 pts |
| QB keep | -1.79 pts |
| Pull RPO | -2.03 pts |
| Play action | -3.31 pts |
| Curl route | -3.76 pts |
| End-around | -5.23 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.66 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.53 pts |
| Deep post | -8.65 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.28 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.82 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.