Saints vs Seahawks — Week 5, 2022
The Saints took over leading 39-32 with 3:21 left, 1st & 10 at their own 32, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Saints 39, Seahawks 32. Saints won 39-32 — the drive time expired.
Saints ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 32, 3:21 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 93.7% for Saints. Our model starts at 93.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:21) 41-A.Kamara right guard to NO 36 for 4 yards (30-M.Jackson).
- (3:16) 41-A.Kamara right tackle to NO 38 for 2 yards (10-U.Nwosu).
- (3:10) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 10-T.Smith to NO 48 for 10 yards (6-Q.Diggs). Pass 4, YAC 6
- (2:24) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to SEA 48 for 4 yards (95-M.Adams; 90-B.Mone).
- (2:00) 41-A.Kamara right guard to SEA 38 for 10 yards (6-Q.Diggs; 56-J.Brooks).
- (1:53) 14-A.Dalton kneels to SEA 39 for -1 yards.
- (1:12) 14-A.Dalton kneels to SEA 39 for no gain.
- (:36) 14-A.Dalton kneels to SEA 40 for -1 yards. PENALTY on SEA-10-U.Nwosu, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 40.
- (:31) 14-A.Dalton kneels to SEA 26 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.16 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.94 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.16 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| Outside run | -0.49 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -0.70 pts |
| Quick out | -1.05 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.08 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.10 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.39 pts |
| QB keep | -1.40 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.66 pts |
| Play action | -2.67 pts |
| Curl route | -3.10 pts |
| End-around | -5.11 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.17 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.07 pts |
| Deep post | -8.72 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.02 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.94 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.