49ers vs Seahawks — Week 15, 2022
The 49ers took over leading 21-13 with 3:35 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 21, Seahawks 13. 49ers won 21-13 — the drive time expired.
49ers ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 3:35 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.3% for 49ers. Our model starts at 94.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:35) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to SF 31 for 6 yards (26-R.Neal, 6-Q.Diggs).
- (2:54) 23-C.McCaffrey right guard to SF 34 for 3 yards (51-B.Irvin; 58-T.Muse).
- (2:42) 13-B.Purdy scrambles right end to SF 35 for 1 yard (57-C.Barton). Seattle challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #3.)
- (2:16) (Shotgun) 24-J.Mason left guard to SF 41 for 6 yards (6-Q.Diggs; 58-T.Muse).
- (2:00) 24-J.Mason right end to SF 43 for 2 yards (10-U.Nwosu; 58-T.Muse).
- (1:14) 24-J.Mason up the middle pushed ob at SEA 2 for 55 yards (30-M.Jackson).
- (1:02) 13-B.Purdy kneels to SEA 3 for -1 yards.
- (:32) 13-B.Purdy kneels to SEA 4 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.16 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.00 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.16 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| Outside run | -0.50 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.69 pts |
| Inside run | -0.70 pts |
| Quick out | -1.08 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.11 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.13 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.43 pts |
| QB keep | -1.44 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.66 pts |
| Play action | -2.72 pts |
| Curl route | -3.16 pts |
| End-around | -5.14 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.22 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.13 pts |
| Deep post | -8.79 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.07 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.00 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.