Giants vs Texans — Week 10, 2022
The Giants took over leading 21-13 with 2:22 left, 1st & 10 at the Texans 39, 1 timeout in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Giants 24, Texans 16. Giants won 24-16 — the drive scored.
Giants ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. In Texans territory, 2:22 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 97.9% for Giants. Our model starts at 98.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:22) 26-S.Barkley left tackle to HOU 41 for -2 yards (56-T.Booker).
- (2:17) 26-S.Barkley right end to HOU 32 for 9 yards (36-J.Owens).
- (2:09) 26-S.Barkley left tackle to HOU 31 for 1 yard (92-R.Green).
- (2:00) 9-G.Gano 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.56 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.60 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.56 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Outside run | -0.69 pts |
| Inside run | -0.78 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.97 pts |
| Field goal | -1.27 pts |
| Quick out | -1.30 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.31 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.32 pts |
| QB keep | -1.71 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.74 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.76 pts |
| Play action | -3.20 pts |
| Curl route | -3.64 pts |
| End-around | -5.62 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.72 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.68 pts |
| Deep post | -9.57 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.62 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.60 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.