Lions vs Vikings — Week 14, 2022
The Lions took over leading 31-23 with 2:49 left, 1st & 10 at the Vikings 44, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Lions 34, Vikings 23. Lions won 34-23 — the drive scored.
Lions ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. In Vikings territory, 2:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 97.5% for Lions. Our model starts at 97.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:49) 58-P.Sewell reported in as eligible. 30-Ja.Williams left tackle to MIN 43 for 1 yard (55-Z.Smith; 54-E.Kendricks).
- (2:05) 30-Ja.Williams up the middle to MIN 41 for 2 yards (94-D.Tomlinson, 54-E.Kendricks).
- (2:00) 58-P.Sewell reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass short right to 58-P.Sewell to MIN 32 for 9 yards (44-J.Metellus).
- (1:54) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 30-Ja.Williams up the middle to MIN 31 for 1 yard (94-D.Tomlinson).
- (1:50) 30-Ja.Williams up the middle to MIN 31 for no gain (58-J.Hicks).
- (1:06) 30-Ja.Williams left tackle to MIN 30 for 1 yard (92-J.Lynch).
- (:22) 17-M.Badgley 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.67 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.51 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.67 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Outside run | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -0.74 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.92 pts |
| Quick out | -1.26 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.28 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.28 pts |
| QB keep | -1.65 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.69 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.72 pts |
| Play action | -3.14 pts |
| Curl route | -3.57 pts |
| End-around | -5.54 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.66 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.61 pts |
| Deep post | -9.47 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.53 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.51 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.