Falcons vs Seahawks — Week 3, 2022
The Falcons took over leading 27-23 with 1:17 left, 1st & 10 at their own 18, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 27, Seahawks 23. Falcons won 27-23 — the drive time expired.
Falcons ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 18, 1:17 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.3% for Falcons. Our model starts at 87.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:17) 84-C.Patterson right guard to ATL 23 for 5 yards (52-D.Taylor).
- (1:12) 84-C.Patterson left tackle to ATL 28 for 5 yards (97-P.Ford). SEA-56-J.Brooks was injured during the play.
- (1:06) 1-M.Mariota kneels to ATL 27 for -1 yards.
- (:36) 1-M.Mariota kneels to ATL 26 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.52 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.81 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.52 pts |
| Outside run | -0.15 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.19 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.48 pts |
| Inside run | -0.60 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.68 pts |
| Quick out | -0.74 pts |
| QB keep | -0.77 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.79 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.80 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.87 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.49 pts |
| Play action | -2.09 pts |
| Curl route | -2.17 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.52 pts |
| End-around | -4.57 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.31 pts |
| Deep post | -7.57 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.04 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.81 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.