Ravens vs Buccaneers — Week 8, 2022
The Ravens took over leading 24-16 with 4:47 left, 1st & 10 at their own 39, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 27, Buccaneers 22. Ravens won 27-22 — the drive scored.
Ravens ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 39, 4:47 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.3% for Ravens. Our model starts at 93.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:47) (Shotgun) 17-K.Drake right tackle to TB 21 for 40 yards (32-M.Edwards).
- (3:56) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles up the middle to TB 17 for 4 yards (92-W.Gholston).
- (3:13) (Shotgun) 43-J.Hill right end to TB 12 for 5 yards (50-V.Vea).
- (2:29) 17-K.Drake up the middle to TB 12 for no gain (92-W.Gholston).
- (2:16) 9-J.Tucker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.13 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.98 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.13 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.48 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.53 pts |
| Outside run | -0.56 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.76 pts |
| Inside run | -0.76 pts |
| Quick out | -1.13 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.16 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.19 pts |
| QB keep | -1.49 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.50 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.71 pts |
| Play action | -2.78 pts |
| Curl route | -3.22 pts |
| End-around | -5.16 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.26 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.16 pts |
| Deep post | -8.80 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.07 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.98 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.