Titans vs Raiders — Week 3, 2022
The Titans took over leading 24-16 with 3:29 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Titans 24, Raiders 22. Titans won 24-22 — the drive turned it over.
Titans ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 3:29 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.9% for Titans. Our model starts at 94.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:29) 22-D.Henry up the middle to TEN 26 for 1 yard (90-J.Hankins; 98-M.Crosby).
- (3:25) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at TEN 15 for -11 yards (98-M.Crosby). FUMBLES (98-M.Crosby) [98-M.Crosby], recovered by TEN-15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine at TEN 14.
- (3:16) (Shotgun) 40-D.Hilliard up the middle to TEN 24 for 10 yards (24-J.Abram, 99-C.Ferrell). Penalty on TEN-64-N.Davis, Offensive Holding, declined.
- (3:09) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 70 yards to LV 6, Center-46-M.Cox. 84-K.Cole pushed ob at LV 19 for 13 yards (42-J.Jones).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.09 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.07 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.09 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.48 pts |
| Outside run | -0.53 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.72 pts |
| Inside run | -0.72 pts |
| Quick out | -1.10 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.13 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.15 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.47 pts |
| QB keep | -1.47 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.68 pts |
| Play action | -2.77 pts |
| Curl route | -3.21 pts |
| End-around | -5.20 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.27 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.18 pts |
| Deep post | -8.87 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.13 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.07 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.