Commanders vs Bears — Week 6, 2022
The Commanders took over leading 12-7 with 2:28 left, 1st & 10 at their own 48, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 12, Bears 7. Commanders won 12-7 — the drive missed field goal.
Commanders ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Near midfield, 2:28 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 89.6% for Commanders. Our model starts at 93.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:28) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson left tackle to CHI 36 for 16 yards (53-N.Morrow).
- (2:16) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson right tackle to CHI 35 for 1 yard (9-J.Brisker; 96-A.Watts).
- (2:09) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson left guard to CHI 33 for 2 yards (55-A.Muhammad, 53-N.Morrow).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 24-A.Gibson right guard to CHI 30 for 3 yards (96-A.Watts).
- (1:54) 6-J.Slye 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.20 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.75 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.20 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| Outside run | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.47 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.51 pts |
| Inside run | -0.67 pts |
| Quick out | -0.93 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.97 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.01 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.24 pts |
| QB keep | -1.26 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.62 pts |
| Play action | -2.49 pts |
| Curl route | -2.90 pts |
| End-around | -4.99 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.99 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.87 pts |
| Deep post | -8.46 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.84 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.75 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.