Colts vs Vikings — Week 15, 2022
The Colts took over tied at 36 with 4:50 left, 1st & 10 at their own 13, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Colts 36, Vikings 36. Tied 36-36 — the drive turned it over.
Colts ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 13, 4:50 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 37.0% for Colts. Our model starts at 53.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:50) 21-Z.Moss left tackle to IND 18 for 5 yards (54-E.Kendricks; 58-J.Hicks).
- (4:17) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-M.Pittman to IND 33 for 15 yards (7-P.Peterson). MIN-7-P.Peterson was injured during the play.
- (3:49) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at IND 28 for -5 yards (sack split by 55-Z.Smith and 99-D.Hunter). FUMBLES (55-Z.Smith) [55-Z.Smith], recovered by IND-14-A.Pierce at IND 34. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
- (2:58) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short left to 11-M.Pittman (20-D.Shelley).
- (2:54) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 11-M.Pittman to IND 43 for 9 yards (20-D.Shelley).
- (2:23) 21-Z.Moss left tackle to IND 44 for 1 yard (97-H.Phillips).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-M.Pittman to IND 44 for no gain (29-K.Boyd, 97-H.Phillips).
- (1:53) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short left to 14-A.Pierce [99-D.Hunter].
- (1:49) 6-M.Haack punts 38 yards to MIN 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-16-A.Dulin.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.66 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-3.89 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.66 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.90 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.91 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.22 pts |
| QB keep | -1.27 pts |
| Curl route | -1.31 pts |
| Outside run | -1.56 pts |
| Quick out | -1.57 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.64 pts |
| Play action | -1.75 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.76 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.78 pts |
| Inside run | -1.85 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.43 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.05 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.43 pts |
| Deep post | -3.89 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.