Bears vs Lions — Week 10, 2022
The Bears took over trailing 31-30 with 2:17 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Bears 30, Lions 31. Lions won 31-30 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Bears ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 20, 2:17 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 51.6% for Bears. Our model starts at 45.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:17) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields right end to CHI 25 for 5 yards (97-A.Hutchinson).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete deep right to 10-C.Claypool (1-J.Okudah).
- (1:45) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete short middle to 85-C.Kmet.
- (1:40) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields sacked at CHI 25 for -5 yards (97-A.Hutchinson).
- (1:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle to 32-D.Montgomery to CHI 32 for 7 yards (49-C.Board).
- (1:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields sacked at CHI 22 for -10 yards (99-J.Okwara).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.70 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.97 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.70 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.64 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.53 pts |
| QB keep | +1.46 pts |
| Quick out | +0.76 pts |
| Play action | +0.75 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.62 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.26 pts |
| Outside run | -0.11 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.68 pts |
| Deep post | -0.81 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.90 pts |
| Inside run | -1.06 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.50 pts |
| Spike it | -2.97 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.