Saints vs Falcons — Week 15, 2022
The Saints took over leading 21-18 with 2:06 left, 1st & 10 at their own 39, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Saints 21, Falcons 18. Saints won 21-18 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Saints ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 39, 2:06 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 87.1% for Saints. Our model starts at 85.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:06) 70-T.Penning reported in as eligible. 41-A.Kamara right guard to NO 44 for 5 yards (34-D.Hall).
- (2:00) 7-T.Hill at quarterback. (Shotgun) 67-L.Young and 70-T.Penning reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill right tackle to ATL 49 for 7 yards (27-R.Grant).
- (1:55) 70-T.Penning reported in as eligible. 41-A.Kamara right guard to ATL 36 for 13 yards (27-R.Grant).
- (1:48) 41-A.Kamara left guard to ATL 31 for 5 yards (93-T.Horne; 97-G.Jarrett).
- (1:45) 41-A.Kamara right guard to ATL 27 for 4 yards (98-A.Anderson; 32-J.Hawkins).
- (:59) 7-T.Hill at quarterback. (Shotgun) 70-T.Penning and 67-L.Young reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill right tackle to ATL 27 for no gain (54-R.Evans).
- (:12) 7-T.Hill at quarterback. 7-T.Hill FUMBLES (Aborted) at ATL 27, and recovers at ATL 27. 7-T.Hill to ATL 27 for no gain (54-R.Evans).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.47 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.42 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.47 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.14 pts |
| Outside run | -0.14 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| Quick out | -0.42 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.49 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.50 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.53 pts |
| QB keep | -0.59 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -0.62 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.50 pts |
| Play action | -1.51 pts |
| Curl route | -1.77 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.94 pts |
| End-around | -4.20 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.70 pts |
| Deep post | -6.79 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.65 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.42 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.