Rams vs Falcons — Week 2, 2022
The Rams took over leading 31-25 with 4:57 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Rams 31, Falcons 27. Rams won 31-27 — the drive turnover.
Rams ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 25, 4:57 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 87.3% for Rams. Our model starts at 86.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:57) 3-C.Akers right guard to LA 29 for 4 yards (92-A.Ogundeji; 95-T.Graham).
- (4:12) 27-D.Henderson up the middle to LA 31 for 2 yards (24-A.Terrell).
- (3:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 10-C.Kupp to LA 43 for 12 yards (34-D.Hall) [95-T.Graham]. FUMBLES (34-D.Hall), RECOVERED by ATL-34-D.Hall at LA 40. 34-D.Hall to LA 37 for 3 yards (10-C.Kupp).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.53 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.97 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.53 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.40 pts |
| Outside run | -0.41 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.55 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -0.78 pts |
| Quick out | -0.86 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.92 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.99 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.10 pts |
| QB keep | -1.10 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.66 pts |
| Play action | -2.16 pts |
| Curl route | -2.50 pts |
| End-around | -4.56 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.57 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.36 pts |
| Deep post | -7.60 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.19 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.97 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.