Chargers vs Broncos — Week 6, 2022
The Chargers took over tied at 16 with 4:46 left, 1st & 10 at the Broncos 28, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 16, Broncos 16. Tied 16-16 — the drive scored.
Chargers ball, even score — any score wins it. In Broncos territory, 4:46 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 81.1% for Chargers. Our model starts at 70.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:46) 30-A.Ekeler left end to DEN 29 for -1 yards (49-A.Singleton).
- (4:05) 30-A.Ekeler left end to DEN 30 for -1 yards (22-K.Jackson, 49-A.Singleton).
- (3:23) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 81-M.Williams to DEN 21 for 9 yards (31-J.Simmons).
- (2:43) 6-D.Hopkins 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.86 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-5.08 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.86 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.52 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.01 pts |
| Outside run | -0.02 pts |
| QB keep | -0.10 pts |
| Quick out | -0.12 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.22 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.39 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.51 pts |
| Play action | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -0.71 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.73 pts |
| Curl route | -0.74 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.44 pts |
| Spike it | -2.45 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.77 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.32 pts |
| Field goal | -3.63 pts |
| Deep post | -5.08 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.