Colts vs Commanders — Week 8, 2022
The Colts took over leading 16-10 with 4:55 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Colts 16, Commanders 17. Commanders won 17-16 — the drive turned it over.
Colts ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 25, 4:55 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 87.4% for Colts. Our model starts at 86.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:55) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to IND 27 for 2 yards (91-J.Ridgeway, 93-J.Allen).
- (4:16) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to IND 30 for 3 yards (93-J.Allen).
- (3:38) (Shotgun) 4-S.Ehlinger scrambles left end to IND 34 for 4 yards (94-D.Payne). Indianapolis challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
- (2:47) 6-M.Haack punts 56 yards to WAS 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 15-D.Milne pushed ob at WAS 11 for 1 yard (33-D.Flowers).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.48 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.06 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.48 pts |
| Outside run | -0.43 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.43 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.55 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -0.78 pts |
| Quick out | -0.88 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.94 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.00 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.13 pts |
| QB keep | -1.13 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.68 pts |
| Play action | -2.21 pts |
| Curl route | -2.56 pts |
| End-around | -4.62 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.63 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.43 pts |
| Deep post | -7.70 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.27 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.06 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.