Chiefs vs Broncos — Week 14, 2022
The Chiefs took over leading 34-28 with 4:21 left, 1st & 10 at their own 15, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 34, Broncos 28. Chiefs won 34-28 — the drive time expired.
Chiefs ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 15, 4:21 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 87.0% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 87.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:16) (Shotgun) 1-J.McKinnon left tackle to KC 26 for 6 yards (22-K.Jackson; 53-J.Cooper).
- (3:30) 1-J.McKinnon left guard to KC 28 for 2 yards (22-K.Jackson).
- (3:25) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 1-J.McKinnon to KC 25 for -3 yards (92-J.Harris).
- (3:19) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling ran ob at KC 45 for 20 yards (31-J.Simmons) [56-B.Browning].
- (3:12) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco left guard to KC 49 for 4 yards (92-J.Harris).
- (3:07) 1-J.McKinnon left tackle to DEN 44 for 7 yards (47-J.Jewell).
- (2:21) 1-J.McKinnon right tackle to DEN 44 for no gain (93-D.Jones; 47-J.Jewell).
- (2:00) 10-I.Pacheco up the middle to DEN 34 for 10 yards (31-J.Simmons, 21-K.Williams).
- (1:14) 15-P.Mahomes kneels to DEN 35 for -1 yards.
- (:38) 15-P.Mahomes kneels to DEN 36 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.72 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.16 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.72 pts |
| Outside run | -0.47 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.70 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.79 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.85 pts |
| Inside run | -0.85 pts |
| Quick out | -1.26 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.31 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.34 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.37 pts |
| QB keep | -1.37 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.72 pts |
| Play action | -2.64 pts |
| Curl route | -2.83 pts |
| End-around | -4.87 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.98 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.78 pts |
| Deep post | -8.04 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.43 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.16 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.