Jets vs Bills — Week 14, 2022
The Jets took over trailing 20-12 with 0:46 left, 1st & 10 at their own 21, 1 timeout in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Jets 12, Bills 20. Bills won 20-12 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Jets ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 21, 0:46 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 3.2% for Jets. Our model starts at 2.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (:46) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass incomplete short right to 32-Mi.Carter.
- (:40) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass incomplete short right to 10-B.Berrios (30-D.Jackson).
- (:36) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass incomplete deep left to 17-G.Wilson.
- (:30) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass incomplete short middle to 8-E.Moore (57-A.Epenesa). Pass batted at line.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.49 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.46 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.49 pts |
| Curl route | +0.35 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.22 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.19 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.16 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.16 pts |
| QB keep | +0.14 pts |
| Play action | +0.13 pts |
| Quick out | +0.07 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.05 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.03 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.11 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.14 pts |
| Spike it | -0.33 pts |
| Outside run | -0.40 pts |
| Inside run | -0.45 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.46 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.