Raiders vs Titans — Week 3, 2022
The Raiders took over trailing 24-16 with 2:57 left, 1st & 10 at their own 19, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 22, Titans 24. Titans won 24-22 — the drive scored.
Raiders ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 19, 2:57 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 4.7% for Raiders. Our model starts at 5.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 28-J.Jacobs to LV 32 for 13 yards (37-A.Hooker) [99-R.Weaver].
- (2:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short right.
- (2:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep middle to 17-D.Adams.
- (2:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep middle to 84-K.Cole.
- (2:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 10-M.Hollins to TEN 25 for 48 yards (39-T.Mitchell).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 10-M.Hollins ran ob at TEN 20 for 5 yards (39-T.Mitchell).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr scrambles right tackle pushed ob at TEN 14 for 6 yards (53-D.Cole).
- (1:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short middle to 17-D.Adams (93-T.Tart).
- (1:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Adams (53-D.Cole).
- (1:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short right to 84-K.Cole (21-R.McCreary).
- (1:32) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short right.
- (1:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short left to 10-M.Hollins. TEN-26-K.Fulton was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.51 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.75 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.51 pts |
| Curl route | +0.47 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.29 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.24 pts |
| QB keep | +0.17 pts |
| Play action | +0.13 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.09 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.08 pts |
| Quick out | +0.04 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.01 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.11 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.25 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.31 pts |
| Outside run | -0.58 pts |
| Spike it | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -0.71 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.75 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.