Giants vs Cowboys — Week 3, 2022
The Giants took over trailing 23-16 with 1:45 left, 1st & 10 at their own 9, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Cowboys.
What really happened
Final: Giants 16, Cowboys 23. Cowboys won 23-16 — the drive turnover.
Giants ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. Backed up at their own 9, 1:45 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 6.0% for Giants. Our model starts at 5.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:45) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 3-S.Shepard to NYG 21 for 12 yards (3-A.Brown).
- (1:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete deep right to 3-S.Shepard.
- (1:17) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left intended for 13-D.Sills INTERCEPTED by 7-T.Diggs at NYG 36. 7-T.Diggs to NYG 29 for 7 yards. NYG-3-S.Shepard was injured during the play.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.00 pts), and the weakest was Outside run (-1.02 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.00 pts |
| Curl route | -0.30 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.38 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.38 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.42 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.45 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.49 pts |
| Quick out | -0.51 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.52 pts |
| QB keep | -0.52 pts |
| Play action | -0.54 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.55 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.59 pts |
| Spike it | -0.66 pts |
| Inside run | -0.97 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.02 pts |
| Outside run | -1.02 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.