Rams vs Raiders — Week 14, 2022
The Rams took over trailing 16-10 with 1:45 left, 1st & 10 at their own 2, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Rams 17, Raiders 16. Rams won 17-16 — the drive scored.
Rams ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. Backed up at their own 2, 1:45 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 8.8% for Rams. Our model starts at 8.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:45) (Shotgun) 17-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 15-T.Atwell.
- (1:41) (Shotgun) 17-B.Mayfield pass short left to 15-T.Atwell ran ob at LA 10 for 8 yards (21-A.Robertson).
- (1:30) (Shotgun) 17-B.Mayfield sacked at LA 13 for -9 yards (sack split by 98-M.Crosby and 55-C.Jones). PENALTY on LV-90-J.Tillery, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at LA 13.
- (1:20) (Shotgun) 17-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 18-B.Skowronek to LV 40 for 32 yards (39-N.Hobbs).
- (:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 41-M.Brown to LV 31 for 9 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao; 52-D.Perryman).
- (:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-B.Mayfield pass short left to 18-B.Skowronek to LV 23 for 8 yards (39-N.Hobbs).
- (:16) (No Huddle) 17-B.Mayfield spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:15) (Shotgun) 17-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 12-V.Jefferson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB sneak (-0.50 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.35 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB sneak | -0.50 pts |
| Deep post | -0.59 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.66 pts |
| Quick out | -0.69 pts |
| QB keep | -0.70 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.70 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.74 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.80 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.87 pts |
| Curl route | -0.93 pts |
| Spike it | -0.93 pts |
| Play action | -1.01 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.09 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.14 pts |
| Inside run | -1.27 pts |
| Outside run | -1.33 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.35 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.