Cardinals vs Raiders — Week 2, 2022
The Cardinals took over trailing 23-15 with 4:43 left, 1st & 10 at their own 27, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 23, Raiders 23. Tied 23-23 — the drive scored.
Cardinals ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 27, 4:43 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 8.5% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 9.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:43) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 18-A.Green to ARI 27 for no gain (21-A.Robertson).
- (4:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 18-A.Green to ARI 37 for 10 yards (50-J.Brown).
- (3:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to ARI 48 for 11 yards (50-J.Brown).
- (3:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left to 2-M.Brown (90-J.Hankins).
- (3:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 24-D.Williams up the middle to LV 43 for 9 yards (5-D.Deablo; 95-K.Vickers).
- (3:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 24-D.Williams left guard to LV 43 for no gain (95-K.Vickers). Measured, ball short of First Down
- (2:28) 1-K.Murray scrambles right end pushed ob at LV 41 for 2 yards (24-J.Abram).
- (2:17) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz to LV 30 for 6 yards (5-D.Deablo).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray left end ran ob at LV 25 for 5 yards (24-J.Abram; 50-J.Brown).
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 26-E.Benjamin to LV 22 for 3 yards (39-N.Hobbs).
- (1:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz to LV 12 for 10 yards (30-D.Harmon).
- (1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-E.Benjamin right tackle to LV 6 for 6 yards (50-J.Brown).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.62 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.05 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.62 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.42 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.41 pts |
| Deep post | +0.39 pts |
| QB keep | +0.35 pts |
| Play action | +0.21 pts |
| Quick out | +0.14 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.09 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.00 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.02 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.06 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.29 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.32 pts |
| Outside run | -0.53 pts |
| Inside run | -0.76 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.84 pts |
| Spike it | -1.05 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.