Raiders vs Rams — Week 14, 2022
The Raiders took over leading 16-10 with 3:19 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 16, Rams 17. Rams won 17-16 — the drive turned it over.
Raiders ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 25, 3:19 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 88.5% for Raiders. Our model starts at 90.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:19) 77-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 28-J.Jacobs up the middle to LV 26 for 1 yard (2-T.Hill).
- (3:15) 28-J.Jacobs up the middle to LV 34 for 8 yards (97-M.Hoecht).
- (2:38) 28-J.Jacobs up the middle to LV 34 for no gain (45-B.Wagner; 93-M.Copeland).
- (2:00) 6-A.Cole punts 64 yards to LA 2, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-22-A.Abdullah.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.48 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.38 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.48 pts |
| Outside run | -0.12 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.39 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Inside run | -0.46 pts |
| Quick out | -0.84 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.88 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.93 pts |
| QB keep | -0.97 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.09 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.39 pts |
| Play action | -2.42 pts |
| Curl route | -2.64 pts |
| End-around | -4.73 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.92 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.76 pts |
| Deep post | -8.24 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.51 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.38 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.