Bengals vs Dolphins — Week 4, 2022
The Bengals took over leading 20-15 with 3:05 left, 1st & 10 at the Dolphins 45, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 27, Dolphins 15. Bengals won 27-15 — the drive scored.
Bengals ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Near midfield, 3:05 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 89.3% for Bengals. Our model starts at 92.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:05) 28-J.Mixon right tackle to MIA 42 for 3 yards (28-K.Kohou).
- (2:58) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 1-J.Chase to MIA 6 for 36 yards (27-K.Crossen).
- (2:10) 77-H.Adeniji reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon left guard to MIA 2 for 4 yards (98-R.Davis).
- (2:00) 28-J.Mixon right tackle to MIA 2 for no gain (40-N.Needham; 94-C.Wilkins).
- (1:56) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 88-H.Hurst for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-45-D.Riley, Defensive Holding, declined.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.34 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.64 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.34 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| Outside run | -0.38 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.48 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.48 pts |
| Inside run | -0.64 pts |
| Quick out | -0.91 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.95 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.99 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.20 pts |
| QB keep | -1.22 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.59 pts |
| Play action | -2.43 pts |
| Curl route | -2.83 pts |
| End-around | -4.89 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.92 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.79 pts |
| Deep post | -8.34 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.74 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.64 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.