Buccaneers vs Falcons — Week 5, 2022
The Buccaneers took over leading 21-15 with 4:38 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 21, Falcons 15. Buccaneers won 21-15 — the drive time expired.
Buccaneers ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 25, 4:38 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 88.1% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 87.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:38) 7-L.Fournette up the middle to TB 37 for 12 yards (32-J.Hawkins).
- (4:01) 7-L.Fournette left guard to TB 40 for 3 yards (98-A.Anderson; 97-G.Jarrett).
- (3:55) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 14-C.Godwin to TB 43 for 3 yards (44-T.Andersen).
- (3:15) 7-L.Fournette up the middle to ATL 47 for 5 yards (47-A.Ebiketie).
- (3:09) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep right to 10-S.Miller (37-D.Alford).
- (2:56) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short left to 13-M.Evans.
- (2:53) 7-L.Fournette up the middle to ATL 27 for 5 yards (54-R.Evans).
- (2:46) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 13-M.Evans to ATL 18 for 9 yards (24-A.Terrell).
- (2:00) 12-T.Brady kneels to ATL 19 for -1 yards.
- (1:18) 12-T.Brady kneels to ATL 20 for -1 yards.
- (:39) 12-T.Brady kneels to ATL 21 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.55 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.03 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.55 pts |
| Outside run | -0.37 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.38 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.51 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Inside run | -0.74 pts |
| Quick out | -0.84 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.90 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.96 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.08 pts |
| QB keep | -1.08 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.63 pts |
| Play action | -2.16 pts |
| Curl route | -2.51 pts |
| End-around | -4.57 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.59 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.38 pts |
| Deep post | -7.66 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.23 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.03 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.