Dolphins vs Bills — Week 3, 2022
The Dolphins took over leading 21-17 with 1:46 left, 1st & 10 at their own 2, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 21, Bills 19. Dolphins won 21-19 — the drive turned it over.
Dolphins ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Backed up at their own 2, 1:46 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 89.3% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 84.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:46) 31-R.Mostert left tackle to MIA 1 for -1 yards (50-G.Rousseau).
- (1:43) 1-T.Tagovailoa up the middle to MIA 1 for no gain (92-D.Jones; 49-T.Edmunds).
- (1:40) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short right to 31-R.Mostert.
- (1:37) 4-T.Morstead punt is BLOCKED, Center-44-B.Ferguson, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. The punt was not blocked, it deflected off an offensive player.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.90 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.26 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.90 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.82 pts |
| Outside run | -0.84 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.98 pts |
| Inside run | -1.03 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.28 pts |
| Quick out | -1.55 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.59 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.60 pts |
| QB keep | -1.88 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.92 pts |
| Pull RPO | -2.12 pts |
| Play action | -3.19 pts |
| Curl route | -3.70 pts |
| End-around | -5.03 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.42 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.21 pts |
| Deep post | -7.78 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.97 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.26 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.