Saints vs Buccaneers — Week 13, 2022
The Saints took over leading 16-10 with 3:00 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Saints 16, Buccaneers 17. Buccaneers won 17-16 — the drive turned it over.
Saints ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 25, 3:00 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 88.3% for Saints. Our model starts at 91.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:00) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara left end to NO 28 for 3 yards (92-W.Gholston).
- (2:54) 70-T.Penning reported in as eligible. 14-A.Dalton sacked at NO 18 for -10 yards (94-C.Nassib).
- (2:47) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete deep left to 7-T.Hill (22-K.Neal).
- (2:40) 4-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to TB 37, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-50-A.Dowell.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.36 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.54 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.36 pts |
| Outside run | -0.37 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.44 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.50 pts |
| Inside run | -0.65 pts |
| Quick out | -0.88 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.92 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.97 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.16 pts |
| QB keep | -1.18 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.59 pts |
| Play action | -2.36 pts |
| Curl route | -2.75 pts |
| End-around | -4.84 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.85 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.71 pts |
| Deep post | -8.21 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.65 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.54 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.