Saints vs Bengals — Week 6, 2022
The Saints took over leading 26-24 with 3:42 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Saints 26, Bengals 30. Bengals won 30-26 — the drive turned it over.
Saints ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 25, 3:42 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 78.0% for Saints. Our model starts at 71.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:42) 41-A.Kamara right guard to NO 28 for 3 yards (95-Z.Carter; 97-J.Tufele).
- (3:02) 22-M.Ingram right guard to NO 31 for 3 yards (92-B.Hill).
- (2:19) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short left to 83-J.Johnson (91-T.Hendrickson).
- (2:16) 4-B.Gillikin punts 29 yards to CIN 40, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.32 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.45 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.32 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.61 pts |
| QB keep | +0.57 pts |
| Outside run | +0.56 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.11 pts |
| Quick out | -0.07 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.18 pts |
| Inside run | -0.24 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.40 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.50 pts |
| Curl route | -0.62 pts |
| Play action | -0.94 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.96 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.15 pts |
| End-around | -3.33 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.69 pts |
| Deep post | -5.11 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.01 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.45 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.