Commanders vs Packers — Week 7, 2022
The Commanders took over leading 23-21 with 3:26 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 23, Packers 21. Commanders won 23-21 — the drive turned it over.
Commanders ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 25, 3:26 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 78.0% for Commanders. Our model starts at 71.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:26) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson left guard to WAS 29 for 4 yards (91-P.Smith; 31-A.Amos).
- (2:43) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin to WAS 43 for 14 yards (23-J.Alexander).
- (2:27) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 88-A.Rogers to WAS 45 for 2 yards (31-A.Amos).
- (2:20) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke right tackle to WAS 44 for -1 yards (59-D.Campbell).
- (2:13) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 17-T.McLaurin pushed ob at GB 44 for 12 yards (20-R.Ford).
- (2:06) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson left guard to GB 43 for 1 yard (20-R.Ford; 29-R.Douglas).
- (2:00) 8-B.Robinson left guard to GB 37 for 6 yards (20-R.Ford; 59-D.Campbell).
- (1:16) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson up the middle to GB 37 for no gain (20-R.Ford, 31-A.Amos).
- (:29) 5-T.Way punts 24 yards to GB 18, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.32 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.48 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.32 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.65 pts |
| QB keep | +0.61 pts |
| Outside run | +0.60 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.15 pts |
| Quick out | -0.03 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.14 pts |
| Inside run | -0.21 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.33 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.38 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.46 pts |
| Curl route | -0.59 pts |
| Play action | -0.91 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.93 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.13 pts |
| End-around | -3.33 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.68 pts |
| Deep post | -5.12 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.02 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.48 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.