Jets vs Vikings — Week 13, 2022
The Jets took over trailing 27-22 with 1:19 left, 1st & 10 at the Vikings 43, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Jets 22, Vikings 27. Vikings won 27-22 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Jets ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. In Vikings territory, 1:19 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 30.6% for Jets. Our model starts at 23.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:19) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass short left to 25-T.Johnson to MIN 37 for 6 yards (54-E.Kendricks, 20-D.Shelley).
- (:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-M.White pass deep left to 17-G.Wilson to MIN 19 for 18 yards (22-H.Smith) [94-D.Tomlinson].
- (:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-M.White pass incomplete short right.
- (:27) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass incomplete short left to 17-G.Wilson (22-H.Smith).
- (:23) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass incomplete short right to 8-E.Moore.
- (:16) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass deep middle intended for 84-C.Davis INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bynum [98-D.Wonnum] at MIN 1. 24-C.Bynum to MIN 6 for 5 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.19 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.18 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.19 pts |
| Deep post | +1.65 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.64 pts |
| QB keep | +1.61 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.51 pts |
| Play action | +1.11 pts |
| Quick out | +0.77 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.66 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.62 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.58 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.28 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.34 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Outside run | -0.76 pts |
| Inside run | -1.43 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.61 pts |
| Spike it | -2.18 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.