Giants vs Bears — Week 4, 2022
The Giants took over leading 20-12 with 3:04 left, 1st & 10 at their own 3, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Giants 20, Bears 12. Giants won 20-12 — the drive turnover.
Giants ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. Backed up at their own 3, 3:04 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 94.3% for Giants. Our model starts at 94.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:04) 26-S.Barkley up the middle to NYG 4 for 1 yard (99-T.Gipson).
- (2:59) 26-S.Barkley left tackle to NYG 4 for no gain (58-R.Smith).
- (2:55) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right tackle to NYG 7 for 3 yards (96-A.Watts).
- (2:13) 6-J.Gillan punts 59 yards to CHI 34, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 12-V.Jones MUFFS catch, touched at CHI 34, RECOVERED by NYG-23-G.Brightwell at CHI 37. Penalty on CHI-50-S.Weatherford, Offensive Holding, declined.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.12 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.38 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.12 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.56 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.61 pts |
| Outside run | -0.75 pts |
| Inside run | -0.84 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.17 pts |
| Quick out | -1.46 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.46 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.47 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.81 pts |
| QB keep | -1.88 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.97 pts |
| Play action | -3.31 pts |
| Curl route | -3.84 pts |
| End-around | -5.49 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.73 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.66 pts |
| Deep post | -9.25 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.56 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.38 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.