Raiders vs Chargers — Week 13, 2022
The Raiders took over leading 27-20 with 2:42 left, 1st & 10 at their own 42, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 27, Chargers 20. Raiders won 27-20 — the drive turned it over.
Raiders ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 42, 2:42 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 94.4% for Raiders. Our model starts at 95.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:42) 28-J.Jacobs left tackle to LV 46 for 4 yards (69-S.Joseph; 3-D.James). LAC-69-S.Joseph was injured during the play.
- (2:37) 28-J.Jacobs right end to LAC 48 for 6 yards (24-N.Adderley).
- (2:29) 28-J.Jacobs left guard to LAC 45 for 3 yards (92-J.Gaziano; 24-N.Adderley).
- (2:00) 28-J.Jacobs up the middle to LAC 42 for 3 yards (52-K.Mack; 42-T.Reeder).
- (1:16) 28-J.Jacobs up the middle to LAC 40 for 2 yards (92-J.Gaziano).
- (:31) 6-A.Cole punts 30 yards to LAC 10, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-59-L.Masterson.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.96 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.20 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.96 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.57 pts |
| Inside run | -0.73 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.75 pts |
| Quick out | -1.13 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.15 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.17 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.51 pts |
| QB keep | -1.51 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.70 pts |
| Play action | -2.84 pts |
| Curl route | -3.29 pts |
| End-around | -5.30 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.35 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.28 pts |
| Deep post | -9.02 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.25 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.20 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.