Cardinals vs Chargers — Week 12, 2022
The Cardinals took over leading 24-17 with 2:19 left, 1st & 10 at their own 10, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 24, Chargers 25. Chargers won 25-24 — the drive turned it over.
Cardinals ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. Backed up at their own 10, 2:19 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 94.3% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 94.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:19) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle to ARI 10 for no gain (3-D.James, 56-M.Fox).
- (2:16) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at ARI 4 for -6 yards (43-M.Davis).
- (2:11) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 6-J.Conner to ARI 13 for 9 yards (49-D.Tranquill, 9-K.Murray).
- (2:00) 14-A.Lee punts 50 yards to LAC 37, Center-46-A.Brewer. 1-D.Carter ran ob at ARI 43 for 20 yards (35-C.Matthew). PENALTY on ARI-35-C.Matthew, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 43.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.13 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.20 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.13 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.62 pts |
| Outside run | -0.75 pts |
| Inside run | -0.85 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.17 pts |
| Quick out | -1.46 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.46 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.47 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.77 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.82 pts |
| QB keep | -1.88 pts |
| Play action | -3.12 pts |
| Curl route | -3.55 pts |
| End-around | -5.48 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.49 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.41 pts |
| Deep post | -9.01 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.34 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.20 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.