Buccaneers vs Saints — Week 13, 2022
The Buccaneers took over trailing 16-10 with 2:29 left, 1st & 10 at their own 37, 1 timeout in hand, against the Saints.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 17, Saints 16. Buccaneers won 17-16 — the drive scored.
Buccaneers ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 37, 2:29 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 22.1% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 14.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:29) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 6-J.Jones to TB 42 for 5 yards (27-A.Taylor).
- (2:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 14-C.Godwin to NO 49 for 9 yards (21-B.Roby).
- (1:59) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 88-C.Otton pushed ob at NO 41 for 8 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
- (1:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-L.Fournette up the middle to NO 31 for 10 yards (6-M.Maye).
- (1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 88-C.Otton to NO 27 for 4 yards (27-A.Taylor).
- (1:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short left to 88-C.Otton.
- (:58) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 10-S.Miller to NO 20 for 7 yards (6-M.Maye).
- (:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 6-J.Jones to NO 5 for 15 yards (27-A.Taylor).
- (:16) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short middle to 14-C.Godwin (56-D.Davis).
- (:12) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 14-C.Godwin pushed ob at NO 6 for 9 yards (29-P.Adebo).
- (:08) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 29-R.White for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.34 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.51 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.34 pts |
| Deep post | +1.14 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.96 pts |
| QB keep | +0.94 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.88 pts |
| Play action | +0.62 pts |
| Quick out | +0.40 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.34 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.33 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.33 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.07 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.35 pts |
| Outside run | -0.68 pts |
| Inside run | -1.09 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.20 pts |
| Spike it | -1.51 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.